Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
